Not surprising that after a sharp move on Friday, the FX markets spent most of Monday consolidating their losses to the dollar. Only two events on the calendar this week could ruin that rosy scenario for dollar longs В- US Trade Balance data due this Wednesday and Advanced Retail Sales due Thursday. If the Trade Balance registered a deficit of -$65 Billion or greater then all of the structural concerns regarding the untenable US Balance Sheet position would again come to the forefront and the market may sell dollars once more. Retail sales on the other hand are expected to improve to 0.7% from 0.3%, but the weekly department store data has not been strong so a downside surprise is possible. For the time being however, the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD appears to be down.